TenneT: batteries increasingly important, but insufficient to prevent future power shortages

The risks of electricity shortages in the Netherlands are increasing faster than previously expected. This is evident from the Monitor Supply Security 2026 from TenneT. According to the grid operator, structural risks to the availability of sufficient electricity will arise from 2030 onwards. Batteries and other forms of flexibility are playing an increasing role in this, but are not sufficient to deal with long-term shortages, according to TenneT.

Security of supply comes under pressure

The energy transition is generating strong growth in electricity demand. Industry, mobility, data centers and the built environment are rapidly electrifying. At the same time, the available controllable production capacity is decreasing. As a result, security of supply is coming under increasing pressure. TenneT expects that the current standard of a maximum four-hour shortage per year will be exceeded in all the scenarios studied starting in 2030.

According to the grid operator, the question is no longer whether additional measures are needed, but how quickly they can be implemented.

More renewable generation requires more flexibility

The Netherlands will get more and more electricity from wind and solar power in the coming years. This growth is necessary for the energy transition, but at the same time it will cause greater fluctuations in the electricity system. At times with a lot of sun and wind there will be surpluses, while during periods with little sustainable production there may be shortages.

This greatly increases the need for flexibility. Production surpluses can be stored, converted into heat or hydrogen, exported abroad or temporarily regulated. During scarcity, on the contrary, batteries, demand response, imports and controllable power plants should ensure sufficient electricity.

Explosive growth of battery storage

TenneT expects the amount of battery storage to increase significantly in the coming years. This includes not only large-scale battery farms, but also home batteries, batteries at solar and wind farms, and applications where electric cars can feed power back into the grid.

According to TenneT, behind-the-meter batteries have developed faster in the past year than previously expected. This is also evident from the ESNL Market Research Energy Storage 2025. The falling cost of batteries, the phasing out of the balancing scheme and the emergence of dynamic energy contracts are causing more and more households and businesses to invest in storage.

Solar and wind farms are also increasingly installing batteries. This allows producers to better handle grid congestion and supply electricity at times when market prices are more favorable.

Batteries make important contribution to energy system

TenneT sees battery storage as an important building block of the future energy system. Together with demand response, batteries provide more flexibility and can help cope with daily fluctuations between supply and demand.

The contribution of batteries to security of supply will therefore continue to increase in the coming years. By temporarily storing excess renewable energy, batteries can partially absorb peaks and troughs in electricity production.

Long-term shortages call for more than storage

Despite the strong growth of battery capacity, TenneT stresses that energy storage alone is not enough to prevent future shortages. In periods when there is little sun and wind available for an extended period, the contribution of batteries proves limited.

The grid operator states that while batteries and demand response play an increasing role, they are insufficient to fully compensate for the loss of adjustable generation. Especially during prolonged scarcity situations, additional adjustable power remains necessary.

To ensure security of supply, TenneT recommends that a capacity mechanism be operational no later than the winter of 2029-2030. This will prevent existing regulable capacity from disappearing too quickly and create room for the timely development of new capacity.

Response of Energy Storage NL to the Security of Supply Monitor.

Energy Storage NL appreciates that TenneT again concludes that timely sufficient storage capacity is necessary. ESNL Market Survey 2025 shows that the number of battery projects is growing rapidly, but the question remains whether these projects will be realized in time to ensure sufficient security of supply.

ESNL has therefore been pleading with the Cabinet for some time to introduce a capacity mechanism in which batteries can also participate. Experiences in neighboring countries with existing capacity mechanisms show that batteries can compete with gas power plants in capacity tenders. It is therefore important that the conditions within a future capacity mechanism are technology-neutral and fair, so that batteries can compete on an equal footing with fossil alternatives. In that context, Energy Storage NL has previously issued a position paper presented to Minister Van Veldhoven and State Secretary Jo-Annes de Bat.

In addition, Energy Storage NL highlights the importance of long-term energy storage, for example via flow batteries, molecular storage and thermal storage. The upscaling of these technologies is essential to meet long-term shortages and reduce or even avoid the use of fossil gas power plants.

However, the current scale-up phase carries significant risks, causing private investment to lag behind. Targeted support from the government, for example in the form of guarantee schemes or other risk reduction instruments, is necessary to make these technologies available in a timely manner and to cash in on their contribution to security of supply.