Accelerating the Adoption of Home Batteries Starts with Understanding: Equinox Insights on the Development of the Dutch Market

Every month, Energy Storage NL introduces a new member to its supporters. This month we meet Equinox Insights, an independent market research and consulting firm focused on the Dutch home battery market. Using data, market analysis, and strategic advice, Equinox Insights helps market players, investors, and public organizations better understand and respond to developments in this rapidly growing segment. In this interview, Equinox Insights explains how transparent market information can contribute to the healthy rollout of home batteries, which developments are currently shaping the market, and why collaboration within Energy Storage NL is important for the further professionalization of energy storage in the built environment.

What does Equinox Insights do, and what role does the company play in the energy transition?

Equinox Insights is an independent market research and consulting firm that focuses entirely on the residential battery market in the Netherlands. We aim to contribute to a responsible and well-informed rollout of home batteries. We believe that the transition will only succeed if consumers make decisions based on transparent data and systems are managed intelligently. In this way, batteries deliver a real return on investment for the owner, while simultaneously contributing to the stability of the power grid.

What services does Equinox Insights provide to clients, and how exactly do you help organizations navigate the Dutch home battery market?

The home battery market is changing at a rapid pace. We translate complex market data and technical developments into clear, actionable strategies. We do this through three pillars:

• Market Reports: Customers receive a quarterly update on the Dutch residential battery market. The report covers topics such as policy changes, market growth, market shares of key players, winning product features, and integration into our electricity grid.
• Customized consulting: We advise investors, manufacturers, and public organizations on strategic issues related to the home battery market.
• In-company training sessions and keynote presentations: We quickly bring teams up to speed on the most important market developments and insights.

Equinox Insights focuses specifically on the Dutch home battery market. In your opinion, what are the most important developments currently shaping this market?

Of course, the elimination of the net metering program as of January 1, 2027, marks a significant milestone in this regard. Even more so than with the introduction of feed-in tariffs, consumers will then begin to think more carefully about their energy management.

In addition, the introduction of time-of-use electricity rates is a significant development. This has the potential to increase the number of households considering a home battery from 3.3 million households with solar panels to all 8.4 million households.

How will the phase-out of the net metering program affect demand for home batteries?

As long as net metering is fully permitted, the power grid functions as a free, infinitely large battery. As soon as this policy is phased out, the financial return on solar panels without storage will drop immediately. From that point on, a home battery will become the key tool for increasing the self-consumption of solar power from approximately 30% to 60% or more.

Perhaps even more important than the rollout itself is the media attention that comes with it. Home batteries are already regularly in the news, but starting in Q1 2027, that attention is expected to increase further. While the market for home batteries was virtually nonexistent in 2023, we expect tens of thousands of systems to be sold each month by 2027.

How do dynamic energy rates and new grid rates affect the business case for home batteries?

Starting in 2027, we expect self-consumption to form the basis of the business case for most households. In the winter, the battery can primarily be used in combination with a dynamic contract: charging during off-peak hours and using it during peak hours. Congestion services and imbalance trading are the proverbial icing on the cake.

The new grid tariffs provide a significant boost to the business case for home batteries. They create a second stable basis for investing in a home battery. However, it is important to note that the new time-dependent grid tariffs, in their currently proposed form, could make using the battery—particularly discharging it and feeding power back into the grid—less attractive.

How mature is the Dutch home battery market at this time compared to other European countries, and what lessons can we learn from markets that are already more developed?

While in Germany, Italy, and Belgium, home batteries have been the standard companion to solar panel systems for years, here in the Netherlands we are only on the cusp of a real breakthrough.

The most important lesson we can learn from other countries is that we must ensure quality, circularity, and smart control from the very beginning. We must prevent the installation of thousands of ‘dumb’ systems that cannot be controlled remotely or that contribute to local grid overloads instead of resolving them.

In your opinion, which applications and revenue models for home batteries have the most growth potential?

The greatest potential lies in smart, integrated control. For larger systems, this is often referred to as “revenue stacking,” but for consumers, it’s mainly about using the battery smartly at the moments when it adds the most value.

Although independent EMS companies do not yet have a large market share, we see significant growth potential in this area. As more and more homes switch to all-electric systems, it becomes increasingly important for charging stations, home batteries, solar panels, water heaters, and the power grid to work together seamlessly.

What are currently the biggest challenges to further growth in the home battery market?

Further growth in the home battery market is currently being held back by three challenges. First, there is a lack of nuance and honest advice in the market. On the one hand, aggressive commercial players promise consumers the moon with unrealistic returns, often without providing sufficient nuance. On the other hand, organizations such as the Consumentenbond and Milieu Centraal are, in contrast, very conservative in their calculations of the payback period. This creates a great deal of confusion.

Second, we are facing a shortage of well-trained technicians. The market is looking not only for traditional installers, but also for technicians who understand and are interested in the complex software aspects of energy management systems.

Finally, certain policies create a disincentive to make optimal use of the battery. Starting January 1, 2027, double energy taxation will undermine the business case for smart electricity trading. This is further exacerbated by the impending introduction of time-dependent grid tariffs. This is because you will no longer be reimbursed for those additional grid tariffs when you feed a kilowatt-hour previously purchased back into the grid, which unnecessarily discourages trading.

What will the Dutch home battery market look like in five years?

Above all, we hope that the market will develop in a stable manner, with predictable policies from the government and grid operators. That way, by 2030, hundreds of thousands of homeowners will be able to install a smart home battery. As a result, home batteries—which are embedded in the very fabric of our electricity system—can serve as a stable pillar supporting the Dutch power grid.

Thanks to technological advancements, newly installed systems—possibly using sodium-ion or solid-state technology—will have a longer service life. At the same time, the first batteries will be recycled responsibly, ensuring that the raw materials remain in Europe.

Equinox Insights has joined Energy Storage NL. What was the main reason for you to join the trade association?

As a brand-new member, we want to build strong connections within the sector and actively contribute to healthy, high-quality market growth. Because we operate independently and do not sell hardware, we can offer an objective, data-driven perspective. Collaboration within the supply chain is crucial to effectively breaking down barriers related to regulation, grid integration, and consumer confidence. Hopefully, many more organizations will join us in the coming period, including those active in the home battery market.

What role do you see for Energy Storage NL in the continued professionalization and growth of the Dutch home battery market, and how does Equinox Insights plan to contribute to that itself?

Energy Storage NL is a key voice in advocating to policymakers and grid operators to improve the framework conditions for energy storage. Together with other industry associations, we must take the lead in bringing bottlenecks—such as grid tariffs and regulations—to the forefront and in promoting standards for safety and circularity in installations. At Equinox Insights, we are happy to actively contribute to this effort within the Built Environment working group.

Photo by www.shertakescare.com

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